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Objecting to Federal Land Sales on Military Strategic Grounds
Objecting to Federal Land Sales on Military Strategic Grounds
Opening Statement
“I’m here today to voice strong opposition to the proposed sale of federal lands as a budget measure. While I understand the fiscal pressures facing our government, selling our public lands would compromise critical military and national security interests that far outweigh any short-term financial gains.”
Key Military Strategic Arguments
1. Training and Readiness Infrastructure
- Federal lands provide essential training areas for military exercises that cannot be replicated on private property
- Large-scale maneuvers, live-fire exercises, and joint operations require vast, controlled territories
- Loss of these lands would force expensive relocation of training facilities or compromise military readiness
2. Strategic Buffer Zones
- Federal lands often serve as natural security buffers around sensitive military installations
- Private development near bases creates security vulnerabilities and operational constraints
- Maintaining federal control ensures compatible land use that supports rather than hinders military operations
3. Airspace and Flight Corridors
- Many federal lands lie beneath critical military airspace and flight training routes
- Private ownership could lead to development that interferes with low-level flight training and testing
- Controlled federal lands ensure clear airspace for national defense operations
4. Research and Testing Facilities
- Remote federal lands host classified research, weapons testing, and technology development
- These activities require absolute security and land use control that only federal ownership can guarantee
- Private ownership introduces unacceptable risks to sensitive defense programs
5. Strategic Resource Security
- Federal lands contain mineral deposits and natural resources critical to defense manufacturing
- Maintaining federal control ensures reliable access to materials needed for military equipment and infrastructure
- Private ownership could limit access or inflate costs during national emergencies
Economic Counter-Arguments
Short-term vs. Long-term Costs
“While land sales might generate immediate revenue, the long-term costs of relocating military infrastructure, acquiring new training areas, and addressing security vulnerabilities would far exceed any budget savings.”
National Security Investment
“Federal lands represent a national security investment that pays dividends in military readiness and strategic flexibility. This is not the time to mortgage our defense capabilities for short-term budgetary relief.”
Closing Statement
“Our federal lands are not just real estate—they are strategic assets that support our national defense infrastructure. I urge you to reject this short-sighted proposal and instead pursue budget solutions that don’t compromise our military readiness or national security. The true cost of selling these lands will be measured not in dollars, but in our reduced capacity to defend our nation.”
The 18-Year Real Estate Cycle
The 18-Year Real Estate Cycle: Understanding Market Timing and Which Segments Face the Greatest Risk
Understanding the 18-Year Cycle
The Theory Behind the Numbers
The 18-year real estate cycle isn’t just market folklore—it’s a documented pattern that’s been tracking for centuries. Back in the 1930’s a real estate economist named Homer Hoyt discovered that real estate prices seemed to ebb and flow on an almost perfect 18 year schedule. This theory was later refined by economist Fred Harrison, who has successfully predicted multiple market peaks and crashes using this model.
How the Cycle Works
The cycle includes 14 years of stability or growth after a crash, followed by 4 years of recession. Here’s the breakdown:
- Years 1-7: Recovery and early growth phase
- Years 8-14: Strong growth and market optimism
- Years 15-16: Peak euphoria and speculative activity
- Years 17-18: Market correction and decline
Where Are We Now in 2025?
The last major real estate crash bottomed out around 2011-2012. If we follow the 18-year cycle theory, we’re currently in Year 13-14 of the current cycle, which suggests:
- We’re in the later stages of the growth phase
- Market peak could occur around 2026-2027
- A potential correction could follow in 2028-2030
Fred Harrison predicted house prices will peak in 2026, aligning with this cycle theory.
Most Vulnerable Market Segments
1. Commercial Real Estate (Highest Risk)
Commercial real estate faces the greatest exposure to correction due to:
- Overleveraging: Small- and medium-sized banks, which make up a substantial portion of CRE lending, are particularly vulnerable
- Interest Rate Sensitivity: Higher rates dramatically impact cap rates and valuations
- Changing Work Patterns: Office space demand permanently altered by remote work
- Refinancing Crisis: Many properties face refinancing at much higher rates
Sub-segments at highest risk:
- Office buildings (especially Class B and C)
- Retail properties in secondary markets
- Overleveraged apartment complexes
- Speculative development projects
2. Luxury Residential Market (High Risk)
The luxury segment typically experiences the most volatility because:
- Discretionary Purchase: Ultra-high-end homes are wants, not needs
- Speculative Investment: Often driven by investment rather than primary residence needs
- Interest Rate Impact: Jumbo loans are more sensitive to rate changes
- Global Economic Sensitivity: Luxury buyers often have internationally exposed wealth
3. Secondary/Vacation Home Markets (Moderate-High Risk)
Markets like Sun Valley face elevated risk due to:
- Discretionary Nature: Second homes are first to be sold in financial stress
- Investor Concentration: High percentage of non-resident owners
- Leverage Exposure: Often purchased with significant financing
Why Sun Valley Has Protection Despite Risk Factors:
- Geographic Constraints: Limited developable land creates natural scarcity
- Ultra-Wealthy Buyer Pool: Less leveraged, more cash purchases
- Lifestyle Value: Generational family compounds, not just investments
- Inflation Hedge: Tangible assets in uncertain economic times
Market Segments with Lower Risk
Primary Residence Markets (Lower Risk)
- First-time buyer segments
- Affordable housing markets
- Essential worker housing areas
- Markets with job growth and population inflow
Industrial Real Estate (Lowest Risk)
- Warehousing and distribution
- Manufacturing facilities
- Data centers
- Essential infrastructure
Investment Strategy Based on Cycle Timing
If We’re at Year 13-14 (Current Position):
- Be Cautious with New Acquisitions: Especially in vulnerable segments
- Lock in Long-Term Financing: Secure favorable rates before the peak
- Build Cash Reserves: Prepare for opportunities in the correction phase
- Focus on Quality: Premium locations with strong fundamentals
- Reduce Leverage: Pay down debt before the cycle turns
Timing Your Sun Valley Investment:
- 2025-2026: Last opportunity to buy before potential peak
- 2027-2029: Hold period, avoid selling unless necessary
- 2030-2032: Prime acquisition opportunity as cycle bottoms
Key Indicators to Watch
Early Warning Signs:
- Speculative building activity increases
- First-time buyer affordability hits crisis levels
- Commercial real estate transaction volume drops significantly
- Regional bank stress in CRE portfolios
- Luxury market inventory builds up
Sun Valley Specific Indicators:
- New construction permits surge
- Days on market increase for luxury properties
- Rental yields compress significantly
- Out-of-state buyer percentage drops
The Bottom Line
The 18-year cycle suggests we’re approaching a potential market peak around 2026-2027. Commercial real estate faces the highest correction risk, followed by luxury residential and vacation home markets. However, Sun Valley’s unique characteristics—geographic constraints, ultra-wealthy buyer base, and lifestyle value—provide some insulation from broader market corrections.
Investment Philosophy: Time in market beats timing the market, but understanding cycles helps optimize entry and exit strategies. If you’re planning a 10+ year hold period, short-term cycle fluctuations matter less than long-term location fundamentals.
Disclaimer: The 18-year cycle is a theoretical model, not a guarantee. Real estate markets are influenced by numerous factors including interest rates, economic conditions, government policy, and local market dynamics. Past performance does not predict future results.
Winter Wonderland
Throughout December, the holiday spirit settles over Sun Valley Resort, transforming our Village into a picturesque Winter Wonderland…
You can hear it in the melodies sung by the Sun Valley Carolers as they stroll through our European-style Holiday Market stalls, and you can see it sparkle in the ceremoniously lit Christmas Tree. The holiday spirit glows in the torchlights that parade down Dollar Mountain on Christmas Eve and ring out in the fireworks that signal the coming of Christmas Day. From photo-ops with Santa Claus to festive movie nights at the Opera House, experience the timeless magic of the holidays at Sun Valley Resort.
Labor Day Celebration
- Horsemanship & Cultural Performances
- Children’s Activities: Petting zoo, face painting, & more
- Rebecca’s Private Idaho
- Sun Valley Story Tour
- Grand Marshall Reception – 5-7 pm at Town Square
- Hailey Labor Day Antique Show
- Ore Wagon Museum Big Hitch on Display
- Gallery Walk
- Papoose Club Pancake Breakfast
- Hailey Farmers’ Market
- The Big Hitch Parade – 1 pm at Sun Valley and Main Street
- Chris Hennessee Live at Town Square after the parade
- Rebecca’s Private Idaho
- Papoose Club Pancake Breakfast
- Ore Wagon Museum Big Hitch on Display
- Rebecca’s Private Idaho
- Bellevue Labor Day Celebration – Live music, vendors and activities at Bellevue Park
- Bellevue Labor Day Parade on Main Street 12-1pm
‘We Must Never Forget’
Memorial Day Ceremonies Scheduled in Ketchum and Hailey
Memorial Day ceremonies scheduled in Hailey and Ketchum on Monday are set to bring valley residents together to honor men and women who died while serving in the U.S. military.
The 23rd annual Hailey Memorial Day Ceremony is scheduled to begin at 11 a.m. on Monday, May 27, at the Hailey Cemetery. A memorial wreath will be placed on the Blaine County Veterans monument in the Hailey Cemetery, and flags from the individual branches of the armed services will fly from dawn to dusk.
The Mountain Home Air Force Base Honor Guard and the Idaho Army National Guard will be in attendance for the event, and pilots from the 124th Fighter Wing, stationed in Boise, will conduct a flyover. Members of the Caritas Chorale and The Boise Highlanders bagpipe band will perform music for the ceremony, said Geegee Lowe, a member of the Hailey Memorial Day Committee.
“Memorial Day is a reminder to always set aside time in our lives to honor the great sacrifices that the men and women of the Armed Forces made and continue to make to defend our way of life,” Lowe said. “We must never forget and work to be worthy of the sacrifice they made and continue their dream they fought for.”
Light refreshments will be served after the event from 1-2 p.m. at the gazebo.
The American Legion David Ketchum Post 115 will also host its annual Memorial Day ceremony at the Ketchum Cemetery on Monday at 11 a.m. Sun Valley Mayor Peter Hendricks will be its guest speaker.
U.S. Alpine Championships Return to Sun Valley
On Bald Mountain, 85 years of world-class ski racing
U.S. Alpine Championships return to Sun Valley for fourth time in last decade
For the fourth time since 2016, locals and visitors will have the thrill of watching America’s most competitive skiers carve turns down Bald Mountain in the U.S. Alpine Championships.
The racing event—the culmination of a two-year contract between U.S. Ski & Snowboard (USSA) and Sun Valley Resort—will draw spectators to the Warm Springs side of the mountain March 20-24. For many athletes, it will be their final chance to claim spots on the U.S. Ski Team.
The three disciplines on display this year are slalom, giant slalom, and super giant slalom, or “super-G.” Slalom competitors will attempt to finish two shorter runs with gates closely spaced, while giant slalom competitors will aim for two mid-length runs with gates placed further apart. Super-G competitors will take one longer, faster run from Upper Warm Springs to Upper Greyhawk through gates spaced further apart than they’d be on a giant slalom course.
Sun Valley Resort’s Winter Wonderland
Throughout December, the holiday spirit settles over Sun Valley Resort, transforming our Village into a picturesque Winter Wonderland. You can hear it in the melodies sung by the Sun Valley Carolers as they stroll through our European-style Holiday Market stalls, and you can see it sparkle in the ceremoniously lit Christmas Tree. The holiday spirit glows in the torchlights that parade down Dollar Mountain on Christmas Eve and ring out in the fireworks that signal the coming of Christmas Day. From photo-ops with Santa Claus to festive movie nights at the Opera House, experience the timeless magic of the holidays at Sun Valley Resort.
Thursday, December 21st:
- Sun Valley’s 87th Birthday and Winter Solstice
- Outdoor Sun Valley Serenade Movie Night at Lodge Pool (7:00pm)
- “A Sun Valley Story” Holiday Concert at Opera House(Doors, 6:30pm, 7:00pm-8:00pm)
Friday, December 22nd:
- “A Sun Valley Story” Holiday Concert at Opera House(Doors 6:30pm, 7:00pm-8:00pm)
Saturday, December 23rd:
- Brunch with Santa at Sun Valley Clubhouse(9:00am-2:00pm)
- Outdoor Kids Movie at Lodge Pool (6:30pm)
Sunday, December 24th:
- Brunch with Santa at Sun Valley Clubhouse(9:00am-2:00pm)
- Christmas Eve Ice Show, Torchlight Parade & Fireworks at Lodge Terrace & Dollar Mountain (Starting at 5:30pm)
Sunday, December 31st:
- New Year’s Eve Night Skiing at Dollar Mountain (6:00pm-9:00pm)
- New Year’s Eve “Snow Ball” Party at River Run Lodge (9:00pm – 1:00am)
Recurring Events:
- Community Gingerbread Contest at The Boiler Room (December 9th- 31st, All Day)
- Après Ski Live Music at River Run Lodge (December 9th, 15-16th, 21st – 31st, 2:00pm-5:00pm)
Sun Valley Jazz and Music Festival
The 2023 Sun Valley Jazz and Music Festival dates are October 18 to 22! Five days. Forty Bands. One Million Smiles Attendees from all fifty states, every Canadian province, and several foreign countries gather each October to celebrate live performances of America’s music. The Sun Valley Jazz & Music Festival was birthed out of a love and appreciation for jazz music by Tom & Barbara Hazzard and is held mid-October each year in Sun Valley, ID. Become One of the Thousands of Jazz Fans Who Have Been Delighted Since 1990! This experience of telling the story of “American” music is our passion. Amazing isn’t it? We all get to be part of this history while it’s still in the making. The names that ring through eternity—Armstrong, Ellington, Fitzgerald, Beiderbecke, Goodman, Holliday, Basie, Shaw, Miller, and so many more—have created a legacy of delight that lives on through those of us who participate in this jazz festival. The history of this music echoes the history of twentieth century America. This jazz event is held this year because of your continued support and encouragement. You tell people how much fun it is and that they need to come to Sun Valley.
Wagon Days 2023
Saturday, September 2nd, the city of Ketchum will hold its annual Big Hitch Parade, one of the largest non-motorized parades in the Pacific Northwest. This beloved event celebrates the town’s mining history with an impressive display of horse-drawn buggies, carriages, carts, and stagecoaches.
The parade got its start in 1958 as a way to honor Ketchum’s heritage as a mining town in central Idaho. In the late 1800s, large draft horses were vital for hauling heavy ore from the mines scattered throughout the surrounding mountains. The Big Hitch Parade commemorates this by featuring teams of horses pulling a variety of wagons and carts. Some rigs require up to 32 horses all working together!
One of the highlights is the stagecoach, an iconic symbol of the American West. Stagecoaches were essential for transporting people and mail to remote mountain towns like Ketchum in the late 1800s. Visitors can see these preserved coaches pulled by a hitch of six horse teams just as they were over a century ago.
In addition to the horse-drawn vehicles, the parade includes marching bands, dancers, classic cars, and more. Make sure to arrive early to get a good viewing spot along Main Street as the parade steps off at 1 PM. After the parade, stick around for live music, food vendors, and activities for the kids. Spend the weekend exploring downtown Ketchum and Sun Valley, with an array of shops, restaurants, and outdoor recreation just steps from Main Street.
The Big Hitch Parade is a can’t-miss tradition for visitors and locals alike. If you find yourself in Idaho this August, be sure to stop by Ketchum for this beloved annual event that offers family-friendly fun and a glimpse into the area’s pioneering past.
On Ice: Sun Valley revamping indoor & outdoor ice rinks after refrigeration failure
The well-known Sun Valley ice rink has welcomed skaters of all abilities for decades. It first opened in 1936 with the rest of the resort. It has appeared in movies, hosted the world’s most famous figure skaters and is a place many Idahoans have taken a lap (or a tumble).
But this winter, the ice is gone – both on the outdoor rink, as well as the indoor rink next door where the Sun Valley Suns usually play. No triple axels. No sow cows. No nervous kids learning to skate. But, the rinks will return.
Cooling down
“We are replacing the entire mechanical refrigeration system that services both rinks as well as the floors beneath each ice surface,” Scott Irvine, Ice Operations Manager for Sun Valley Resort, said. “The scope of the project is extensive and we’re thrilled to have it underway.”
The resort closed the rinks in September, according to the Idaho Mountain Express, which forced the cancellation of the final planned outdoor ice show of the summer season. But the paper said the upgrade was already planned to start the next month. The rink reopened for a time in January when the outdoor temperatures were cool.
The work, as viewed late last month by BoiseDev, appeared extensive – with the concrete surface of the outdoor rink entirely removed and work crews preparing the surface for new equipment.
Irvine said the refrigeration and piping system for the outdoor rink date to 1956. The indoor rink opened in 1975. The upgrades should make the year-round outdoor rink, as well as its indoor sister, more energy efficient.
“Modern refrigeration systems are much more energy efficient and reliable than their predecessors,” Irvine said. “Our new system is also capable of providing more refrigeration capacity, which will help us maintain more consistent ice in the warmer months.”
